Apr 7, 2015 LFPR Doldrums on the Labor Front
March 8, 2015 Less than Zero Interest Rates - Trade War
Nov 29, 2014 Good News October Jobs Report
Nov 6, 2014 LFPR by Age and Gender
Oct 18, 2014 Competition-Consumer Sovereignty
Oct 12, 2014 Labor Rpt
July 13, 2014 Jellin with Yellin
June 20, 2014 Labor Mkts by Age Groups
June 3, 2014 Mar and Apr Jobs Rpt
May 21, 2014 April Jobs Report
April 18, 2014 Economic Welfare
Mar 24, 2014 CBO Estimates and LFPR
Jan 12 2014 Deteriorating Labor Market
Jan 2, 2014 Is this the beginning of the end for QE?  (Quantitative Easing 1 through 3+)
Sept 18, 2013 Balance of Payments Trends
Sept 8, 2013 August  Employment Situation
Aug 8, 2013 Why the FED is waffling on raising the FED Funds Target Rate
July 4, 2013 Cacophony of Monetary Policy
May 20, 2013 Clawing Back to 2007 Employment Levels
May 15, 2013 Getting the Income Distribution Right the First Time
Apr 25, 2013 U.S. Competitive Rebound? U.S. Emerging Nation?
Apr 9, 2013 Gaps: Jobs,  Growth, & Fiscal
Apr 5, 2013 Disastrous Jobs Report for March (March madness)
Mar 20, 2013 Federal Reserve Rolls Along
Mar 15, 2013 Feb 2013 Labor Rpt
Feb 12, 2013 Income Distribution-Separating Light from Heat
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2013 Volume Issue 4

Economic Newsletter for the New Millennium

April 5, 2013

Donald R. Byrne, Ph.D.

Associate Editor
Edward T. Derbin, MA, MBA

For a downloadable version, click here

March 2013 Employment Status.pdf

Disastrous Jobs Report for March (March madness)

March Employment Report Update…more to follow in subsequent days

Remain calm!  All is well!!

Kevin Bacon from the last scene in Animal House





Let’s keep this as simple as possible.  We’re focusing entirely on the Employment Status in the Household Survey and what it revealed moving from February to March 2013 on a net basis.



March Household Survey Summary-1.pdf

Unemployed dropped by 290,000, but where did they go?  Employed dropped by 206,000, but where did they go?  Since the Labor Force is equal to the number of Employed plus the number of Unemployed, those 496,000 people simply left the Labor Force --- that’s where they went. 

In addition, 167,000 came into the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for the month of March, but where did they go since Employed and Unemployed both fell (again, on a net basis)?  They were added to the 496,000 that left the Labor Force, bringing us to a total of 663,000 that moved to the Not in the Labor Force category for the month of March.  

To put this into perspective, at 63.3%, the Labor Force Participation Rate is at its lowest point since 1978!  [Labor Force Participation Rate = Labor Force (Employed + Unemployed) divided by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population] 

If Household Survey continued reporting the same numbers for 15 months:


The Labor Force Participation Rate would be 59.6%

The Employment Population Ratio would be 56.6%

The Not in the Labor Force would be just under 100 million.

But what the heck, the U-3 Unemployment Rate would be 5.0%

The point is that so long as we continue to see the Unemployment Rate drop due primarily to folks leaving the Labor Force, there is no recovery in the labor markets.  

Again, more to follow…we wanted to be sure to get this out in a timely manner today.