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Sept 18, 2013 Balance of Payments Trends
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July 4, 2013 Cacophony of Monetary Policy
May 20, 2013 Clawing Back to 2007 Employment Levels
May 15, 2013 Getting the Income Distribution Right the First Time
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Apr 9, 2013 Gaps: Jobs,  Growth, & Fiscal
Apr 5, 2013 Disastrous Jobs Report for March (March madness)
Mar 20, 2013 Federal Reserve Rolls Along
Mar 15, 2013 Feb 2013 Labor Rpt
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2013 Volume Issue 4


Economic Newsletter for the New Millennium

April 5, 2013


Editor
Donald R. Byrne, Ph.D.
dbyrne5628@aol.com


Associate Editor
Edward T. Derbin, MA, MBA
edtitan@aol.com

For a downloadable version, click here

March 2013 Employment Status.pdf



Disastrous Jobs Report for March (March madness)


March Employment Report Update…more to follow in subsequent days


Remain calm!  All is well!!

Kevin Bacon from the last scene in Animal House

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro


 
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION —MARCH 2013

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

 

Let’s keep this as simple as possible.  We’re focusing entirely on the Employment Status in the Household Survey and what it revealed moving from February to March 2013 on a net basis.





 


 

March Household Survey Summary-1.pdf



Unemployed dropped by 290,000, but where did they go?  Employed dropped by 206,000, but where did they go?  Since the Labor Force is equal to the number of Employed plus the number of Unemployed, those 496,000 people simply left the Labor Force --- that’s where they went. 

In addition, 167,000 came into the Civilian Noninstitutional Population for the month of March, but where did they go since Employed and Unemployed both fell (again, on a net basis)?  They were added to the 496,000 that left the Labor Force, bringing us to a total of 663,000 that moved to the Not in the Labor Force category for the month of March.  

 
To put this into perspective, at 63.3%, the Labor Force Participation Rate is at its lowest point since 1978!  [Labor Force Participation Rate = Labor Force (Employed + Unemployed) divided by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population] 
 

If Household Survey continued reporting the same numbers for 15 months:

 

The Labor Force Participation Rate would be 59.6%

The Employment Population Ratio would be 56.6%

The Not in the Labor Force would be just under 100 million.



But what the heck, the U-3 Unemployment Rate would be 5.0%
 

The point is that so long as we continue to see the Unemployment Rate drop due primarily to folks leaving the Labor Force, there is no recovery in the labor markets.  



Again, more to follow…we wanted to be sure to get this out in a timely manner today.