2005issue3
New Economic Paradigm Associates Current Statistics (10–03–2003)
Current Statistics (8–03–2005)
The Employment Picture
Unemployment Rate ({5.2% Apr}…{5.1% May})…{5.0% Jun}
Nonfarm employment increased by 146,000 in June, and the unemployment rate continued to trend down, reaching 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, payroll employment continued to grow in several industries, notably professional and business services and health care.
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm employment rose by 146,000 in June to 133.5 million, seasonally adjusted. This followed job gains of 292,000 in April and 104,000 in May (as revised). Over the month, professional and business services and health care added jobs, and manufacturing employment declined.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
In June, total employment (141.6 million) and the civilian labor force (149.1 million) were essentially unchanged. The employment–population ratio held at 62.7 percent, and the labor force participation rate was little changed over the month at 66.0 percent.
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Jobless Claims
(4–wk rolling average: 321,250 July–9, to 318,500 July–16, to 318,250 Julu–23)
In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 310,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 305,000. The 4–week moving average was 318,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 318,500.
For 2001, the average weekly initial jobless claims were running around 405,000; thus far, in 2005, the average has been in the 325,000 range.
News Release – http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
GDP (2nd Quarter 2005 Real GDP: 3.4%) Preliminary
Real gross domestic product –– the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –– increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the second quarter of 2005, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.
v 2nd Quarter 2005 is the fifteenth consecutive quarter of economic expansion
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were:
from Table 2.––Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2.3%
(Durable Goods 0.68% (Motor Vehicles and parts 0.35%); Nondurable Goods 0.66%; Services 0.96% change from 4th Quarter)
Gross private domestic investment: –0.84%
(Fixed Investment 1.48%; Change in Private Inventories –2.32%)
Net Exports (Exports – Imports): 1.57%
An increase in Exports contributed 1.25% while a decrease in Imports added to the total by 0.33%
Government Spending (Government consumption expenditures and gross investment): 0.38%
Federal increasing 0.09% and State and Local increasing by 0.28%
News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/gdp205a.htm
Leading Indicators
According to figures released by the Conference Board on Thursday, July 21, 2005, seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in June. The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index increased 0.9 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in June.
The leading index now stands at 137.7 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six–month span through June, the leading index increased 0.6 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six–month span equals fifty–five percent).
Next release – Thursday, August 18 at 10:00 AM ET
News Release – http://www.conference–board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
Construction (put in place) (June 0.3% below May)
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during June 2005 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,093.0 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised May estimate of $1,096.0 billion. The June figure is 7.9 percent (±2.2%) above the June 2004 estimate of $1,013.2 billion.
During the first 6 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $514.8 billion, 9.3 percent (±1.9%) above the $471.0 billion for the same period in 2004.
Next release – July 2005 data will be released on September 1, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
New Housing Starts (June 2.4% above May)
Privately–owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2,111,000. This is 2.4 percent (±0.8%) above the revised May rate of 2,062,000 and is 4.8 percent (±1.0%) above the June 2004 estimate of 2,014,000.
Single–family authorizations in June were at a rate of 1,649,000; this is 1.3 percent (±0.9%) above the May figure of 1,628,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 374,000 in June.
Next release (for July) – August 16, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf
New Residential Sales (June 4.0% above May)
Sales of new one–family houses in June 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,374,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.0 percent (±11.6%)* above the revised May rate of 1,321,000 and is 14.0 percent (±17.4%)* above the June 2004 estimate of 1,205,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2005 was $214,800; the average sales price was $267,400. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 454,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate.
Next release (for July) – August 24, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
Durable Goods
Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in June increased $3.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $400.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 3.6 percent May increase. Shipments, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $391.8 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent May increase. Unfilled orders, up for the second consecutive month, increased $15.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $580.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 2.1 percent May increase. Inventories, down for the third consecutive month, decreased $0.1 billion to $483.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent May decrease.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up three consecutive months, increased $4.2 billion or 2.0 percent to $216.7 billion, revised from the previously published 1.4 percent increase.
New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $183.9 billion.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.1 billion to $208.0 billion, revised from the previously published 0.1 percent decrease.
Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $183.9 billion, due to basic chemicals, which decreased $0.5 billion or 1.0 percent to $43.9 billion.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up for the second consecutive month, increased $15.8 billion or 2.8 percent to $580.7 billion, revised from the previously published 2.6 percent increase.
Meanwhile, Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, down two of the last three months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.3 percent to $290.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published 0.3 percent decrease.
Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $192.6 billion.
Next release (for July) – August 24, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
Capital Goods Industries (April):
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in May increased $10.2 billion or 14.5 percent to $80.7 billion. Shipments decreased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $68.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $12.2 billion or 4.8 percent to $263.7 billion. Inventories increased $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $113.6 billion.
Defense new orders for capital goods in May increased $0.9 billion or 13.8 percent to $7.4 billion. Shipments increased $0.2 billion or 2.5 percent to $8.4 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $1.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $142.6 billion. Inventories increased 0.1 percent to $19.5 billion.
Next release (for June) – July 27, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/PastPressReleases/adv/2005/may05adv.pdf
Current Account Balance (Trade Balance)
The Current Account Balance consists of the Trade Balance (Net Exports (Exports less Imports) of Goods and Services), the Income Balance (Income Receipts and Income Payments), and net Unilateral Current Transfers. The Department of Commerce publishes the Current Account Balance data on quarterly basis.
The U.S. Current Account Balance 2003 – $530.7 billion
The U.S. Current Account Balance 2004 – $665.9 billion
The U.S. Trade Balance 2003 – $496.5 billion
The U.S. Trade Balance 2004 – $617.1 billion
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total May exports of $106.9 billion and imports of $162.2 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $55.3 billion, $1.6 billion less than the $56.9 billion in April, revised. May exports were $0.2 billion more than April exports of $106.7 billion. May imports were $1.4 billion less than April imports of $163.6 billion.
In May, the goods deficit decreased $1.6 billion from April to $60.8 billion, and the services surplus was virtually unchanged at $5.4 billion. Exports of goods decreased $0.1 billion to $74.5 billion, and imports of goods decreased $1.6 billion to $135.3 billion. Exports of services increased $0.2 billion to $32.4 billion, and imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $27.0 billion.
In May, the goods and services deficit was up $6.6 billion from May 2004. Exports were up $10.5 billion, or 10.9 percent, and imports were up $17.1 billion, or 11.8 percent.
Next release (for June) – August 12, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/trad0505.htm
CPI 0.1% (June) / PPI 0.0% (June) (Seasonally adjusted)
CPI – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI–U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The June level of 194.5 (1982–84=100) was 2.5 percent higher than in June 2004.
Energy costs declined for the second consecutive month––down 0.5 percent in June. Within energy, the index for petroleum–based energy decreased 0.8 percent and the index for energy services decreased 0.2 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in June, the same as in May.
Next release (for July) – August 16, 2005, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT)
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
PPI – The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods showed no change in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported on July 15, 2005. This index had fallen 0.6 percent in May and risen 0.6 percent in April.
Among finished goods, the index for energy goods increased 2.0 percent in June, following a 3.5–percent drop in the previous month. By contrast, prices for finished consumer foods fell 1.1 percent, compared with a 0.3–percent decline in May, and the index for finished goods other than foods and energy decreased 0.1 percent in June, following a 0.1– percent rise a month earlier.
Next release (for July) – August 17, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Productivity, Unit Labor Cost and Compensation (Seasonally Adjusted)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported preliminary productivity data on June 2, 2005 ––– as measured by output per hour of all persons––for the first quarter of 2005. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the first quarter were:
2.1 percent in the business sector and
2.6 percent in the nonfarm business sector
Productivity in the business sector grew more slowly than in the fourth quarter of 2004, when it increased 3.7 percent. In the nonfarm business sector, however, productivity increased more in the first quarter than it had in the previous quarter.
Next Release (for 2nd Quarter) – August 9, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
10–year U.S. Government Bond Rate
While the 10–year Maturity U.S. Government Security has risen of late, it continues to remain trading at a relatively low rate.
Click here to return to Main Page
(Opinions expressed on this web page are those of a faculty member or employee and do not necessarily reflect the position of University of Detroit Mercy)
