2005issue2
Current Statistics (5–31–2005)
Current Statistics (5–31–2005)
The Employment Picture
Unemployment Rate ({5.4% Feb}…{5.2% Mar})…{5.2% Apr}
Total Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 274,000 over the month April. Employment rose in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth was widespread, with gains in construction, mining, and several service–providing industries.
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 274,000, seasonally adjusted, to 133.3 million in April. This followed gains of 300,000 in February and 146,000 in March (as revised). In April, notable increases occurred in several industries, including construction, mining, food services, and health care.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
Total employment grew by 598,000 in April to 141.1 million, and the employment–population ratio––the proportion of the population age 16 and over with jobs––edged up to 62.6 percent. The civilian labor force increased by 605,000 in April to 148.8 million; the labor force participation rate, at 66.0 percent, also was up over the month.
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Jobless Claims
(4–wk rolling average: 324,250 May–7, to 330,000 May–14, to 330,500 May–21)
In the week ending May 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 322,000. The 4–week moving average was 330,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average of 330,000.
For 2001, the average weekly initial jobless claims were running around 405,000; thus far, in 2005, the average has been in the 330,000 range.
News Release – http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
GDP (1st Quarter 2005 Real GDP: 3.5%) Revised upward from
Real gross domestic product –– the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –– increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2005, according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.8 percent.). It marked the 14th consecutive quarter of economic expansion.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 3.1 percent.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were:
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2.54%
(Durable Goods 0.15% (Motor Vehicles and parts –0.34%); Nondurable Goods 1.09%; Services 1.30% change from 4th Quarter)
Gross private domestic investment: 1.65%
(Fixed Investment 0.87%; Change in Private Inventories 0.78%)
Net Exports (Exports – Imports): –0.67%
Exports contributed 0.71% while Imports negatively impacted the total by –1.38%
Government Spending (Government consumption expenditures and gross investment): –0.03%
Federal increasing 0.03% and State and Local down –0.06%
News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/gdp105p.htm
Leading Indicators
According to figures released by the Conference Board on Thursday, May 19, 2005, the leading index fell again in April, which is now the fourth consecutive decline because February’s small increase was revised down to a small decrease. The leading index has declined at a 1.0 percent annual rate over the last six months, and there have been more weaknesses than strengths among the components in recent months.
Next release – Monday, June 20 at 10:00 AM ET
News Release – http://www.conference–board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1
Construction (put in place) (March 0.5% above February)
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today (May 2, 2005) that construction spending during March 2005 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,051.8 billion, 0.5 percent (±1.6%)* above the revised February estimate of $1,046.9 billion.
The March figure is 8.0 percent (±2.2%) above the March 2004 estimate of $973.9 billion.
During the first 3 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $222.4 billion, 9.3 percent (±2.1%) above the $203.5 billion for the same period in 2004.
Next release – April 2005 data will be released on June 1, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf
New Housing Starts (April 11.0% above March)
Privately–owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2, 038,000. This is 11.0 percent (±9.7%) above the revised March estimate of 1,836,000 and is 3.6 percent (±7.2%)* above the revised April 2004 rate of 1,968,000.
Single–family housing starts in April 2005 were at a rate of 1,635,000; this is 6.3 percent (±8.9%)* above the revised March figure of 1,538,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 351,000.
Next release (for May) – June 16, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf
New Residential Sales (April 0.2% above March)
Sales of new one–family houses in April 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,316,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.2 percent (±8.8%)* above the revised March rate of 1,313,000 and is 13.3 percent (±13.8%)* above the revised April 2004 estimate of 1,162,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2005 was $230,800; the average sales price was $283,500. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 440,000. This represents a supply of 4.1 months at the current sales rate.
Next release (for May) – June 24, 2005 at 10:00 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
Durable Goods
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $3.7 billion or 1.9 percent to $200.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.6 percent March decrease.
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up six of the last seven months, increased $3.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $207.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent March increase.
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, down three of the last four months, decreased slightly to $553.7 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent March decrease.
Meanwhile, Inventories of manufactured durable goods in April, up seventeen consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $291.8 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent March increase.
Capital Goods Industries (April):
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in April increased $2.6 billion or 3.8 percent to $70.3 billion.
Defense new orders for capital goods in April decreased $1.1 billion or 14.5 percent to $6.7 billion.
Next release (for May) – June 24, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT.
News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
Current Account Balance (Trade Balance)
The Current Account Balance consists of the Trade Balance (Net Exports (Exports less Imports) of Goods and Services), the Income Balance (Income Receipts and Income Payments), and net Unilateral Current Transfers. The Department of Commerce publishes the Current Account Balance data on quarterly basis.
The U.S. Current Account Balance 2003 – $530.7 billion
The U.S. Current Account Balance 2004 – $665.9 billion
The U.S. Trade Balance 2003 – $496.5 billion
The U.S. Trade Balance 2004 – $617.1 billion
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total March exports of $102.2 billion and imports of $157.2 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $55.0 billion, $5.6 billion less than the $60.6 billion in February, revised. March exports were $1.5 billion more than February exports of $100.7 billion. March imports were $4.1 billion less than February imports of $161.2 billion.
In March, the goods deficit decreased $5.2 billion from February to $59.4 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.4 billion to $4.4 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.0 billion to $72.1 billion, and imports of goods decreased $4.2 billion to $131.5 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $30.1 billion, and imports of services increased $0.1 billion to $25.7 billion.
In March, the goods and services deficit was up $7.9 billion from March 2004. Exports were up $6.8 billion, or 7.1 percent, and imports were up $14.7 billion, or 10.3 percent.
Next release (for April) – June 10, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/trad0305.htm
CPI 0.7% (April) / PPI 0.6% (April) (Seasonally adjusted)
CPI – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI–U) increased 0.7 percent in April, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The April level of 194.6 (1982–84=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in April 2004.
Energy costs advanced sharply for the third consecutive month––up 4.5 percent in April. Within energy, the index for petroleum–based energy increased 6.3 percent and the index for energy services increased 2.3 percent.
Most notably, the index for all items less food and energy, which increased 0.4 percent in March, was virtually unchanged in April.
Next release (for May) – June 15, 2005, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT)
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
PPI – The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods advanced 0.6 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This increase followed a 0.7–percent rise in March and a 0.4–percent gain in February.
Among finished goods, much of April's increase was due to a 2.1–percent advance in the energy goods index. Excluding prices for energy goods, the finished goods index inched up 0.1 percent.
Next release (for May) – Jun 11, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
News Release – http://bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
Productivity, Unit Labor Cost and Compensation (Seasonally Adjusted)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data––as measured by output per hour of all persons––for the first quarter of 2005. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the first quarter were:
2.1 percent in the business sector and
2.6 percent in the nonfarm business sector
Productivity in the business sector grew more slowly than in the fourth quarter of 2004, when it increased 3.7 percent. In the nonfarm business sector, however, productivity increased more in the first quarter than it had in the previous quarter.
10–year U.S. Government Bond Rate
The 10–year Maturity U.S. Government Security continues to remain trading at a relatively low rate.
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