2006issue1 Current Statistics 1–6–2006 Unemployment, GDP, Productivity, Housing, 10–year note, CPI, PPI Current Statistics (1–05–2006) The Employment Picture Unemployment Rate ({5.1% Sep}…{5.0% Oct})…{5.0% Nov} Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 215,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, job growth was widespread, with large gains in construction and food services. Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 to 134.3 million in November. This followed 2 months of little growth in employment, due in part to the direct and indirect effects of hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast. During the first 8 months of the year, payroll employment grew by an average of 196,000 per month. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Total employment, 142.6 million, and the civilian labor force, 150.2 million, were little changed in November. The employment–population ratio also was little changed over the month at 62.8 percent, and the labor force participation rate held at 66.1 percent. News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm                                                                                 Jobless Claims (4–wk rolling average: 324,750 Dec–17, to 326,000 Dec–24, to 316,750 Dec–31) In the week ending Dec. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 326,000. The 4–week moving average was 316,750, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week's revised average of 326,000. For 2001, the average weekly initial jobless claims were running around 405,000; thus far, in 2005 (with the exception of the anomaly caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita), the average has been in the 325,000 range. News Release – http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm GDP (3rd Quarter 2005 Real GDP: 4.1%) Real gross domestic product –– the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –– increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2005, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.3 percent. v 3rd Quarter 2006 is the sixteenth consecutive quarter of economic expansion The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were: from Table 2.––Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2.86% (Durable Goods 0.76% (Motor Vehicles and parts 0.45%); Nondurable Goods 0.73%; Services 1.36% change from 2nd Quarter) Gross private domestic investment: 0.87% (Fixed Investment 1.31%; Change in Private Inventories –0.43%) Net Exports (Exports – Imports): –0.12% An increase in Exports contributed 0.26% were more than offset by increasing Imports which accounted for a –0.38% change. Government Spending (Government consumption expenditures and gross investment): 0.54% Federal increasing 0.52% and State and Local increasing by 0.03% News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/gdp305f.htm Leading Indicators According to figures released by the Conference Board on December 22, 2005, seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in November. The leading index now stands at 138.8 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1.0 percent in October and decreased 0.7 percent in September. During the six–month span through November, the leading index increased 1.7 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six–month span equals eighty percent). Next release – January 23, at 10:00 AM ET News Release – http://www.conference–board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1 Construction (put in place) (November 0.2% above October) The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during November 2005 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,146.4 billion, 0.2 percent (±1.4%)* above the revised October estimate of $1,144.2 billion. The November figure is 7.8 percent (±2.4%) above the November 2004 estimate of $1,063.4 billion. During the first 11 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,031.2 billion, 9 percent (±1.6%) above the $946.3 billion for the same period in 2004. Next release – December 2005 data will be released on February 1, 2006 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf New Housing Starts (November 5.3% above October) Privately–owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2,123,000. This is 5.3 percent (±7.7%)* above the revised October estimate of 2,017,000 and is 17.5 percent (±6.8%) above the November 2004 rate of 1,807,000. Single–family housing starts in November 2005 were at a rate of 1,808,000; this is 4.8 percent (±8.3%)* above the October figure of 1,725,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 277,000. Next release (for December) – January 19, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf New Residential Sales (November 11.0% below October) Sales of new one–family houses in November 2005 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,245,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.3 percent (±8.9%) below the revised October rate of 1,404,000, but is 6.0 percent (±13.8%)* above the November 2004 estimate of 1,175,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2005 was $225,200; the average sales price was $283,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 503,000. This represents a supply of 4.9 months at the current sales rate. Next release (for December) – January 27, 2006 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf Durable Goods (November increased 2.5% over October) Summary New orders for manufactured goods in November increased $10.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $407.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.7 percent October increase. Shipments, up six of the last seven months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $397.0 billion. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 0.7 percent October increase. Unfilled orders, up seven consecutive months, increased $18.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $621.4 billion. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 1.4 percent October increase. Inventories, up five of the last six months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to $467.1 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent October increase. New Orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $9.3 billion or 4.4 percent to $223.1 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods increased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $184.6 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $0.1 billion to $212.4 billion, revised from the previously published 0.2 percent decrease. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 1.2 percent October increase. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, up four of the last five months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $184.6 billion. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up seven consecutive months, increased $18.1 billion or 3.0 percent to $621.4 billion, revised from the previously published 3.1 percent increase. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 1.4 percent October increase. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up four of the last five months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $285.2 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.5 percent October increase. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $181.9 billion. Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Next release (for December) – January 26, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/ Capital Goods Industries (November): Capital Goods Industries Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November increased $14.1 billion or 19.6 percent to $85.9 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in November decreased $2.6 billion or 26.6 percent to $7.2 billion. Next release (for December) – January 26, 2005 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/ Current Account Balance (Trade Balance) The Current Account Balance consists of the Trade Balance (Net Exports (Exports less Imports) of Goods and Services), the Income Balance (Income Receipts and Income Payments), and net Unilateral Current Transfers. The Department of Commerce publishes the Current Account Balance data on quarterly basis. The U.S. Current Account Balance 2003 – $530.7 billion The U.S. Current Account Balance 2004 – $665.9 billion The U.S. Trade Balance 2003 – $496.5 billion The U.S. Trade Balance 2004 – $617.1 billion The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total October exports of $107.5 billion and imports of $176.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $68.9 billion, $2.9 billion more than the $66.0 billion in September, revised. October exports were $1.8 billion more than September exports of $105.8 billion. October imports were $4.7 billion more than September imports of $171.8 billion. In October, the goods deficit increased $2.6 billion from September to $73.9 billion, and the services surplus decreased $0.3 billion to $5.0 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion to $75.2 billion, and imports of goods increased $4.3 billion to $149.1 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $32.3 billion, and imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $27.3 billion. In October, the goods and services deficit was up $13.3 billion from October 2004. Exports were up $9.0 billion, or 9.2 percent, and imports were up $22.3 billion, or 14.5 percent. Next release (for November) – January 2006 News Release – http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/trad1005.htm CPI –0.8% (November) / PPI – 0.7% (November) (Seasonally adjusted) CPI – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI–U) decreased 0.8 percent in November, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 197.6 (1982–84=100) was 3.5 percent higher than in November 2004. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI–U decreased 0.6 percent in November, its largest decline since a 0.9 drop in July 1949. The index for energy declined for the second consecutive month, down a record 8.0 percent in November. Within energy, a 15.2 percent decrease in the index for petroleum–based energy more than offset a 2.1 percent increase in the index for energy services. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, the same as in October, after registering increases of 0.1 percent in each of the preceding five months. Next release (for December) – January 18, 2006, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT) News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm PPI – The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.7 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 0.7 percent rise in October and a 1.9–percent gain in September. Among finished goods, the index for energy goods decreased –4.0 percent in November, following a 4.1 percent increase in the previous month. By contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy increased 0.1 percent, after decreasing 0.3 percent in the preceding month. Next release (for December) – January 13, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm Productivity, Compensation and Unit Labor Cost (Seasonally Adjusted) The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported revised productivity data on December 6, 2005––as measured by output per hour of all persons––for the third quarter of 2005. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity growth in the third quarter were: 5.4 percent in the business sector and 4.7 percent in the nonfarm business sector Hourly compensation in the business sector increased 4.2 percent during the third quarter of 2005, following a decline of 0.1 percent in the second quarter (as revised). Unit labor costs fell 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2005 following a decline of 0.9 percent one quarter earlier. Next Release (for 4th Quarter and annual 2005) – February 2, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm 10–year U.S. Government Bond Rate The 10–year Maturity U.S. Government Security continues to remain trading at a relatively low rate. Click here to return to Main Page (Opinions expressed on this web page are those of a faculty member or employee and do not necessarily reflect the position of University of Detroit Mercy)