2006issue2 Current Statistics (11–18–2006) Current Statistics (11–18–2006) The Employment Picture Unemployment Rate ({4.7% Aug}…{4.6% Sep})…{4.4% Oct} Employment increased in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.4 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 92,000 in October to 135.8 million. This followed job gains of 148,000 in September and 230,000 in August (as revised). Over the month, employment rose in professional and business services, health care, food services, and mining; manufacturing and construction lost jobs. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) In October, total employment increased by 437,000 to 145.3 million, and the employment–population ratio edged up to 63.3 percent. The civilian labor force, at 152.0 million, was about unchanged in October; the labor force participation rate has held at 66.2 percent since June. News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 8, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). (4–wk rolling average: 311,500 Oct – 28, to 311,750 Nov – 4, to 313,750 Nov – 11) In the week ending Nov. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 308,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 310,000. The 4–week moving average was 313,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 311,750. For 2001, the average weekly initial jobless claims were running around 405,000; thus far, in 2006 the average has been in the 310,000 – 315,000 range. News Release – http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm GDP (3rd Quarter 2006 Real GDP: 1.6%) Real gross domestic product –– the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –– increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2006, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. v 3rd Quarter 2006 is the twentieth consecutive quarter of economic expansion The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the third quarter were: from Table 2.––Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 2.13% (Durable Goods 0.66% (Motor Vehicles and parts 0.41%); Nondurable Goods 0.33%; Services 1.15% change from 2nd Quarter) Gross private domestic investment: –0.34% (Fixed Investment –0.24%; Change in Private Inventories –0.10%) Net Exports (Exports – Imports): –0.58% An increase in Exports contributed 0.70% were more than offset by increasing Imports which accounted for a –1.28% change. Government Spending (Government consumption expenditures and gross investment): 0.37% Federal increasing 0.12% and State and Local increasing by 0.25% News Release – http://bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/gdp306a.htm                   Leading Indicators According to figures released by the Conference Board on October 19, 2006, five of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September. The Conference Board announced that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index remained unchanged and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in September. The leading index now stands at 137.7 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in August and decreased 0.3 percent in July. During the six–month span through September, the leading index decreased 0.9 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six–month span equals 45 percent). Next release – November 20, at 10:00 AM ET Construction (put in place) (September 0.3% below August) The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during September 2006 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,195.9 billion, 0.3 percent (±1.6%)* below the revised August estimate of $1,200.0 billion. The September figure is 2.9 percent (±2.6%) above the September 2005 estimate of $1,162.1 billion. During the first 9 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $903.2 billion, 6.6 percent (±1.8%) above the $847.1 billion for the same period in 2005. Next release – October 2006 data will be released on December 1, 2006 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf           New Housing Starts (October 6.3% below September) Privately–owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,535,000. This is 6.3 percent (±1.2%) below the revised September rate of 1,638,000 and is 28.0 percent (±1.2%) below the October 2005 estimate of 2,131,000. Single–family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,173,000; this is 3.8 percent (±1.3%) below the September figure of 1,219,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 294,000 in October. Next release (for November) – December 19, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf New Residential Sales (September 5.3% above August) Sales of new one–family houses in September 2006 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,075,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.3 percent (±15.6%)* above the revised August rate of 1,021,000, but is 14.2 percent (±12.2%) below the September 2005 estimate of 1,253,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2006 was $217,100; the average sales price was $293,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 557,000. This represents a supply of 6.4 months at the current sales rate. Next release (for October) – November 29, 2006 at 10:00 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf Durable Goods (September increased 2.1% over August) Summary New orders for manufactured goods in September, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.6 billion or 2.1 percent to $411.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent August decrease. Shipments, down three of the last four months, decreased $14.1 billion or 3.5 percent to $392.4 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent August increase. Unfilled orders, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $24.8 billion or 3.9 percent to $656.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 0.5 percent August increase. The unfilled orders–to–shipments ratio was 4.44, up from 4.20 in August. Inventories, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $3.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $479.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August increase. The inventories–to–shipments ratio was 1.22, up from 1.17 in August. New Orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $17.5 billion or 8.3 percent to $228.1 billion, revised from the previously published 7.8 percent increase. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a slight August increase. New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $8.9 billion or 4.6 percent to $183.1 billion. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two of the last three months, decreased $5.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $209.3 billion, revised from the previously published 2.8 percent decrease. This followed a 2.1 percent August increase. Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.9 billion or 4.6 percent to $183.1 billion. This was led by petroleum and coal products, which decreased $5.5 billion or 13.9 percent to $33.9 billion. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $24.8 billion or 3.9 percent to $656.9 billion, revised from the previously published 3.8 percent increase. This was at the highest level since the series began and followed a 0.5 percent August increase. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up eight of the last nine months, increased $3.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $291.3 billion, revised from the previously published 1.0 percent increase. This followed a 0.7 percent August increase. Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, down following six consecutive monthly increases, decreased slightly to $188.1 billion. This was due to petroleum and coal products, which decreased $1.2 billion or 3.9 percent to $29.0 billion. By stage of fabrication, September materials and supplies increased 0.6 percent in durable goods and decreased 0.6 percent in nondurable goods. Work in process increased 2.0 percent in durable goods and decreased 1.3 percent in nondurable goods. Finished goods increased 0.5 percent in durable goods and 0.9 percent in nondurable goods. Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars. Next release (for October) – November 28, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/ Capital Goods Industries (September): Capital Goods Industries Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September increased $15.2 billion or 21.9 percent to $84.5 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $4.1 billion or 41.9 percent to $13.7 billion. Next release (for October) – November 28, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/ Current Account Balance (Trade Balance) The Current Account Balance consists of the Trade Balance (Net Exports (Exports less Imports) of Goods and Services), the Income Balance (Income Receipts and Income Payments), and net Unilateral Current Transfers. The Department of Commerce publishes the Current Account Balance data on quarterly basis. The U.S. Current Account Balance 2003 – $527.5 billion The U.S. Current Account Balance 2004 – $665.3 billion The U.S. Current Account Balance 2005 – $791.5 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2003 – $494.9 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2004 – $611.3 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2005 – $716.7 billion *Balance on goods and services The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total September exports of $123.2 billion and imports of $187.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $64.3 billion, $4.7 billion less than the $69.0 billion in August, revised. September exports were $0.6 billion more than August exports of $122.6 billion. September imports were $4.1 billion less than August imports of $191.6 billion. In September, the goods deficit decreased $4.8 billion from August to $70.1 billion, and the services surplus decreased $0.1 billion to $5.8 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $88.6 billion, and imports of goods decreased $4.2 billion to $158.7 billion. Exports of services were virtually unchanged at $34.5 billion, and imports of services were virtually unchanged at $28.7 billion. In September, the goods and services deficit was down $0.7 billion from September 2005. Exports were up $16.8 billion, or 15.8 percent, and imports were up $16.2 billion, or 9.4 percent. Next release (for October) – December 2006 News Release – http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2006/trad0906.htm CPI –0.5% (October) / PPI – 0.7% (October) (Seasonally adjusted) CPI – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI–U) decreased 0.5 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The October level of 201.8 (1982–84=100) was 1.3 percent higher than in October 2005. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI–U decreased 0.5 percent in October, the same as in September. Energy prices, which declined 7.2 percent in September, fell 7.0 percent in October. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in October, following increases of 0.2 percent in each of the three preceding months. Next release (for November) – December 15, 2006, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT) News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm PPI – The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 1.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 1.3–percent decline in September and a 0.1–percent advance in August. Among finished goods in October, prices for goods other than foods and energy declined 0.9 percent after rising 0.6 percent in September. The index for finished consumer foods also turned down–falling 0.8 percent in October following a 0.7–percent increase in the prior month. Conversely, prices for energy goods decreased 5.0 percent after dropping 8.4 percent in September. Next release (for November) – December 19, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm Productivity, Compensation and Unit Labor Cost (Seasonally Adjusted) The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data––as measured by output per hour of all persons––for the third quarter of 2006. The preliminary seasonally–adjusted annual rates of productivity growth in the third quarter were: 0.1 percent in the business sector and 0.0 percent in the nonfarm business sector Hourly compensation in the business sector increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent during the third quarter of 2006, slower than the 6.4–percent rise one quarter earlier (as revised). Unit labor costs, which reflect changes in both hourly compensation and productivity, rose 4.0 percent during the third quarter of 2006. Next Release (for 3rd Quarter – revised) – December 5, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm 10–year U.S. Government Bond Rate The 10–year Maturity U.S. Government Security continues to remain trading at a relatively low rate. Click here to return to Main Page (Opinions expressed on this web page are those of a faculty member or employee and do not necessarily reflect the position of University of Detroit Mercy)