2007issue1 Current Statistics (2–20–2007) Current Statistics (2–21–2007) The Employment Picture Unemployment Rate ({4.5% Nov 2006}…{4.5% Dec})…{4.6% Jan 2007} Employment remained increased in January 2007, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported. Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 111,000 in January to 137.3 million. This followed job gains of 206,000 in December and 196,000 in November (as revised). In 2006, payroll employment rose by an average of 187,000 per month. Job growth continued in several service–providing industries over the month, and construction employment also rose. The number of manufacturing jobs continued to decline. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) In January, both total employment (146.0 million) and the employment–population ratio (63.3 percent) were essentially unchanged. The civilian labor force (153.0 million) and the labor force participation rate (66.3 percent) were also about the same as in December. The participation rate in January was 0.3 percentage point higher than a year earlier. News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 9, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). Jobless Claims (4–wk rolling average: 309,250 Jan – 20, to 305,000 Jan – 27, to 308,250 Feb – 3) In the week ending Feb. 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 308,000. The 4–week moving average was 308,250, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 305,000. For 2001, the average weekly initial jobless claims were 405,538; in 2006 the average was 312,596. News Release – http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm GDP (4th Quarter 2006 Real GDP: 3.5%) Real gross domestic product –– the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States –– increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. v 4th Quarter 2006 is the twenty–first consecutive quarter of economic expansion The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were: from Table 2.––Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 3.05% (Durable Goods 0.47% (Furniture and household equipment 0.43%); Nondurable Goods 1.38%; Services 1.20% change from 3rd Quarter) Gross private domestic investment: –1.92% (Fixed Investment –1.21%; Change in Private Inventories –0.71%) Net Exports (Exports – Imports): 1.64% An increase in Exports contributed 1.08% while Imports, which accounted for a 0.56% change. Government Spending (Government consumption expenditures and gross investment): 0.7% Federal increasing 0.31% and State and Local increasing by 0.39% News Release – http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2007/gdp406a.htm Leading Indicators According to figures released by the Conference Board on January 23, 2007, six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in December. The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.9 percent in December. The leading index now stands at 138.0 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in November and decreased 0.1 percent in October. During the six–month span through December, the leading index increased 0.1 percent, with four out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six–month span equals forty percent). Next release – Wednesday, February 21 at 10:00 AM ET News Release – http://www.conference–board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=1 Construction (put in place) (December 0.4% below November) The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2006 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,177.7 billion, 0.4 percent (±1.3%)* below the revised November estimate of $1,182.9 billion. The December figure is 1.4 percent (±2.2%)* below the December 2005 estimate of $1,194.5 billion. The value of construction spending in 2006 was $1,198.0 billion, 4.8 percent (±1.6%) above the $1,143.7 billion spent in 2005. Next release – January 2007 data will be released on March 1, 2007 at 10:00 A.M. EST. News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/C30/release.pdf New Housing Starts (December 5.5% above November) Privately–owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,596,000. This is 5.5 percent (±1.1%) above the revised November rate of 1,513,000, but is 24.3 percent (±0.9%) below the December 2005 estimate of 2,107,000. Single–family authorizations in December were at a rate of 1,164,000; this is 1.2 percent (±1.0%) above the November figure of 1,150,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 353,000 in December. Next release (for January 2007) – Friday, February 16, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EST News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/newresconst.pdf New Residential Sales (December 4.8% above November) Sales of new one–family houses in December 2006 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,120,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.8 percent (±12.2%)* above the revised November rate of 1,069,000, but is 11.0 percent (±11.7%)* below the December 2005 estimate of 1,259,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December $290,100. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate. An estimated 1,061,000 new homes were sold in 2006. This is 17.3 percent (±3.4%) below the 2005 figure of 1,283,000. Next release (for January 2007) – Wednesday, February 28, 2007, at 10:00 A.M. EST News Release – http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf Durable Goods (December increased 3.1% over November) Summary New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $6.7 billion or 3.1 percent to $221.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fourth increase in the last five months and followed a 2.2 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.9 percent. Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.8 percent to $211.6 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent November increase. Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up nineteen of the last twenty months, increased $15.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $694.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 1.8 percent November increase. Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $296.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent November increase. Next release (the advance report on durable goods for January) –scheduled for February 27, 2007 at 8:30 a.m. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/ Capital Goods Industries (December): Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December increased $6.7 billion or 9.0 percent to $80.7 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $2.0 billion or 17.5 percent to $9.4 billion. Next release (for October) – November 28, 2006 at 8:30 A.M. EDT. News Release – http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/adv/ Current Account Balance (Trade Balance) The Current Account Balance consists of the Trade Balance (Net Exports (Exports less Imports) of Goods and Services), the Income Balance (Income Receipts and Income Payments), and net Unilateral Current Transfers. The Department of Commerce publishes the Current Account Balance data on quarterly basis. The U.S. Current Account Balance 2003 – $527.5 billion The U.S. Current Account Balance 2004 – $665.3 billion The U.S. Current Account Balance 2005 – $791.5 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2003 – $494.9 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2004 – $611.3 billion *The U.S. Trade Balance 2005 – $716.7 billion *Balance on goods and services The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total November exports of $124.8 billion and imports of $183.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.2 billion, $0.6 billion less than the $58.8 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.1 billion more than October exports of $123.7 billion. November imports were $0.5 billion more than October imports of $182.5 billion. In November, the goods deficit decreased $0.3 billion from October to $64.7 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $6.5 billion. Exports of goods increased $0.6 billion to $89.1 billion, and imports of goods increased $0.3 billion to $153.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $35.7 billion, and imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $29.2 billion. In November, the goods and services deficit was down $5.8 billion from November 2005. Exports were up $14.8 billion, or 13.4 percent, and imports were up $9.0 billion, or 5.2 percent. Next release (for December 2006) – February 13, 2007 (8:30 AM EST) News Release – http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2007/trad1106.htm CPI + 0.2% (January) / PPI –0.6% (January) (Seasonally adjusted) CPI – The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI–U) increased 0.3 percent in January, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The January level of 202.416 (1982–84=100) was 2.1 percent higher than in January 2006. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI–U advanced 0.2 percent in January, following an increase of 0.4 percent in December. Energy costs, which increased 4.2 percent in December, declined 1.5 percent in January. Within energy, the index for petroleum–based energy fell 3.1 percent, while the index for energy services rose 0.5 percent. The food index rose 0.7 percent in January, its largest advance since a 0.8 percent increase in April 2005. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 0.3 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent rise in December; an increase in the index for medical care accounted for about 60 percent of the acceleration. Next release (for February 2007) – March 16, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT) News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm PPI – The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 0.9–percent advance in December and a 1.8–percent jump in November. Among finished goods, prices for energy goods fell 4.6 percent in January following a 2.2–percent rise in the prior month. The rate of increase in the finished consumer foods index slowed to 1.1 percent in January from 1.5 percent in December. By contrast, prices for finished goods other than foods and energy advanced 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. Next release (for February 2007) – March 15, 2007, at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm Productivity, Compensation and Unit Labor Cost (Seasonally Adjusted) The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported preliminary productivity data––as measured by output per hour of all persons––for the fourth quarter and for the full year 2006. The seasonally adjusted annual rates of productivity change in the fourth quarter and the annual average changes were: Business Sector Hourly compensation grew 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, up from a 3.4–percent increase one quarter earlier. Note: Real hourly compensation, which takes into account changes in consumer prices, increased 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. A 2.2–percent decline in consumer prices in the fourth quarter of 2006 contributed to the large increase in real hourly compensation, and was the first decline in the price measure since the fourth quarter of 2001 (0.4 percent). Unit labor costs, which relate hourly compensation to output per hour, increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter and 3.3 percent in the third quarter, after falling 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2006. Nonfarm Business Sector Hourly compensation in the nonfarm business sector rose 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, following a 3.1–percent increase in the third quarter. Note: When the 2.2–percent decrease in consumer prices was taken into account, real hourly compensation grew 7.1 percent during the fourth quarter of 2006. Unit labor costs rose 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, after increasing 3.2 percent in the third quarter and decreasing 2.4 percent in the second quarter. The implicit price deflator for nonfarm business output rose 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, after rising 0.8 percent one quarter earlier. Next Release (for 4th Quarter and annual 2006 – revised) – March 6, 2007 at 8:30 A.M. EDT News Release – http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm 10–year U.S. Government Bond Rate The 10–year Maturity U.S. Government Security continues to remain trading at a relatively low rate. Click here to return to Main Page (Opinions expressed on this web page are those of a faculty member or employee and do not necessarily reflect the position of University of Detroit Mercy)