June 26, 2017 Why's the FED Panicking?
May 25, 2017 LFPR anyone?
Apr 26, 2017 What's up with the FED?
March 10, 2017 Feb Employment Situation
Oct 10, 2016 Tax Burden
Aug 1, 2016 Here Comes the Debt
June 26, 2016 Moribund US Economy
June 16 2016 Labor Update
Mar 10, 2016 Spring Renewal for Labor Markets?
Feb 21, 2016 GDP Gap
Feb 16, 2016 FED and Monetary Policy
Jan 19, 2016 Employment Gap Age Groups LFPR
Jan 10, 2016 A look at the Employment Situation
Dec 30, 2015 Fed Funds Rate up 25 Basis points...so what?
Dec 15, 2015 Fed Funds on the rise? Has Yellen 'Fell-in'?
Oct 15, 2015 Labor Markets Seven years of misery
Oct 6, 2015 Sept: Horrible Month for Labor
Sept 30, 2015 The FED: Interest Rate Angst
Sept 11, 2015 FED on the Monetary Policy Front
July 31, 2015 Trade and Foreign Exchange Rates
July 20, 2015 Economic Growth?
July 10, 2015 Labor Picture by Age Group
July 2, 2015 Disastrous Month in Labor Rpt
June 19, 2015 Minimum Wage - Income Distribution
Jun 5, 2015 Encouraged Worker Effect
May 8, 2015 Updated Employment Situation for April
May 4, 2015 Languishing Labor Markets
Apr 7, 2015 LFPR Doldrums on the Labor Front
March 8, 2015 Less than Zero Interest Rates - Trade War
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2017 Volume Issue 1

Economic Newsletter for the New Millennium 
March 10, 2017

Donald R. Byrne, Ph.D. 

Associate Editor 
Edward T. Derbin, MA, MBA

For a downloadable version, click here

February 2017 Labor Rpt.pdf

...a bit more compressed version of same

February 2017 Labor Rpt-Compressed.pdf

Audio Version of Newsletter - to follow



In sifting through the EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – FEBRUARY 2017 several things pop out at you. 

First, you’ll notice that the Bureau of Labor Statistics points out that the payroll jobs number came in at a robust 235,000 for the month.  Secondly, you will note the unemployment rate came in at 4.7 percent, dropping from 4.8 percent in January 2017. 

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.”  

The Employment-Population Ratio hits an Eight Year High  
There’s no doubt that the February 2017 labor report was very positive.  To key on one point in a overall very good month, let’s take a quick look at the Employment-Population Ratio.  The Employment-Population Ratio is measures the employed divided by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16+ years of age who are not in the military or otherwise institutionalized).  In coming in at 60.0%, this is the best reading since February 2009 (60.3%) --- a very long eight year period.

1-Employment-Population Ratio at 60 percent highest in EIGHT Years.jpg

The FED (Federal Reserve) and the Employment-Population Ratio

It’s important to note that the FED looks upon the Employment-Population Ratio as an important data point in formulating monetary policy. 

This is a very short piece, but we wanted to make sure you were aware that Federal Reserve [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)] will be meeting on March 14-15 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).  In all likelihood, the FOMC will vote to raise the targeted Fed Funds rate by 0.25% or even 0.50% (from the current 0.50-0.75% targeted range) based in part on the much improved Employment-Population Ratio.  Having said this, there is much more critical analysis that we will present in the near future regarding the impending Fed Funds target rate hike.

February Employment Situation Rundown

In February 2017 the following occurred in labor markets:

The Civilian Noninstitutional Population expanded by 164,000

The Labor Force grew by 340,000 [Labor Force 340,000 = Employed 447,000 + Unemployed -107,000]

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) climbed to 63.0%

Employed grew by 447,000

Employment-Population Ratio again rose to 60.0%...this is the highest number since February 2009 (60.3%)!

Unemployed dropped by 107,000

U3 Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.7%

The ‘Not in the Labor Force’ component went down by 176,000

Not in the Labor Force (NLF) = Civilian Noninstitutional Population (CNP) – Labor Force (LF) [Employed + Unemployed]

NLF = (CNP) 164,000 – [447,000 Employed –107,000 Unemployed]

NLF = Civilian Noninstitutional Population (CNP) 164,000 – Labor Force (LF) 340,000

NLF = -176,000

2-February 2017 Household from the Current Population Survey Good news on all fronts.jpg

3-February 2017 Employment Summary Employment up 447 thousand Unemployment down 107 thousand and Labor Force expands by 340 thousand.jpg

Our apologies for extended time since our last article, but we will get more out for you shortly.  

Coming soon: Annual Macroeconomic Report and/or FED monetary policy moves