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June 26, 2016 Moribund US Economy
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Jan 19, 2016 Employment Gap Age Groups LFPR
Jan 10, 2016 A look at the Employment Situation
Dec 30, 2015 Fed Funds Rate up 25 Basis points...so what?
Dec 15, 2015 Fed Funds on the rise? Has Yellen 'Fell-in'?
Oct 15, 2015 Labor Markets Seven years of misery
Oct 6, 2015 Sept: Horrible Month for Labor
Sept 30, 2015 The FED: Interest Rate Angst
Sept 11, 2015 FED on the Monetary Policy Front
July 31, 2015 Trade and Foreign Exchange Rates
July 20, 2015 Economic Growth?
July 10, 2015 Labor Picture by Age Group
July 2, 2015 Disastrous Month in Labor Rpt
June 19, 2015 Minimum Wage - Income Distribution
Jun 5, 2015 Encouraged Worker Effect
May 8, 2015 Updated Employment Situation for April
May 4, 2015 Languishing Labor Markets
Apr 7, 2015 LFPR Doldrums on the Labor Front
March 8, 2015 Less than Zero Interest Rates - Trade War
2014 Articles
2013 Articles
2012 Articles
Dec 31, 2012 Fiscal Cliff --- Increased Spending
Dec 24, 2012 Fiscal Cliff---Rising Revenues with current tax cuts?
Dec 13, 2012 November Jobs Report
Nov 28, 2012 Regulation and the Financial System
Nov 17, 2012 Employment Escarpment - Moving the Jobs Needle
Oct 31, 2012 Update on Shale Gas and Tight Oil
Oct 11, 2012 Restructuring of an Industry: US Light Vehicles
Sep 4, 2012 Resuscitating the Moribund US Economy
August 4, 2012 Unemployment Rises Again
July 21, 2012 Misguided Fiscal Policy: Is it a case of fool’s gold, or the Consequences of Economic Ignorance?
July 6, 2012 Let Freedom  Ring!!! The Shale Gale
June 26 Productivity Macro
June 11, 2012 Painted into Corner
June 4, 2012 Encouraged Worker Effect
May 28, 2012 European Honeymoon Over
May 14, 2012 Back to Basics
May 4, 2012 Labor Force Participation Rate Shrinking
Apr 26, 2012 Income Distribution
Apr 15, 2012 Energy Independence
Apr 6, 2012 Jobs Jobs Jobs
Mar 27, 2012 Gas Prices Killing Economic Growth
Mar 15, 2012 Rough Road or Smooth Sailing?
March 9, 2012 Employment Challenges Ahead
Mar 6, 2012 Stalled US Economy?
Mar 1, 2012 FED Profitabiility
Feb 22, 2012 Population Changes
Feb 13, 2012 Bernanke on Unemployment
Feb 8, 2012 Lower Unemployment - Bad News?
Feb 3, 2012 Chinese Miracle???
Jan 12, 2012 Low Interest Rates - Why so low?
Jan 9, 2012 Labor Force Participation Rate
2011 & 2010 Articles
Introduction
About us
Links of Interest
Straw Poll
Definitions & Miscellaneous
 


2012 Volume Issue 28


Economic Newsletter for the New Millennium

December 31, 2012


Editor
dbyrne5628@aol.com
Donald R. Byrne, Ph.D.


Associate Editor
Edward T. Derbin, MA, MBA
edtitan@aol.com


For a downloadable version, click here


Expenditures 12-31-12.pdf




...a bit more compressed version of same


Expenditures 12-31-12 Compressed.pdf

 

Rising Government Expenditures, Rising Tax Rates, and Sovereign Risk…a recipe for disaster – part two 


 
One week ago, we published a newsletter on this website about taxes levied by the government.  We discussed such things as the impending fiscal cliff, sovereign risk, and the ongoing in unacceptably high unemployment rate.

 

THE FISCAL CLIFF… Those that ignore the lessons of history will have to relive them...part one - revenues

http://econnewsletter.com/159301.html

 

That newsletter was preceded by another discussing the monthly labor report by the U.S. Department of Labor. It was very dismal. While it showed both the U-3 and U-6 measures of the unemployment rate falling, it was all smoke and mirrors.

 

NOVEMBER 2012 MARKS ANOTHER HORRIBLE MONTH FOR THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION IN THE U.S.

http://econnewsletter.com/156401.html

 

What happened was a continuance of the persistent decrease in the labor force participation rate. Had that not happened the unemployment rate would not have fallen, in fact it would have risen. We pointed out that the experience of U.S. history over the past century shows us that tax rate increases do not stimulate the economy, rather they depress it.  

On the other hand, going back to the Harding and Coolidge era in the 1920s, inspired by the Secretary the Treasury Mellon, Congress reduced the tax rates significantly and sparked a relatively long period of prosperity often referred to as the Roaring Twenties.  
 

After the Great Depression and the Second World War, in spite of President Truman’s urgings (he wanted to put in place more of FDR’s New Deal policies), Congress once again lowered tax rates that had reached historical highs under the leadership of Roosevelt (FDR). The civilian economy had been depressed from the beginning of the 1930s and finally began to experience its first substantial and sustained positive rate of economic growth in a peacetime economy since 1929.


It wasn’t until the Revenue Act of 1945 was passed (cutting tax rates) by a Democratic Congress that prosperity finally returned.

Did FDR End the Depression?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304024604575173632046893848.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

“Roosevelt died before the war ended and before he could implement his New Deal revival. His successor, Harry Truman, in a 16,000 word message on Sept. 6, 1945, urged Congress to enact FDR's ideas as the best way to achieve full employment after the war.”

“Congress—both chambers with Democratic majorities—responded by just saying "no." No to the whole New Deal revival: no federal program for health care, no full-employment act, only limited federal housing, and no increase in minimum wage or Social Security benefits.

Instead, Congress reduced taxes. Income tax rates were cut across the board. FDR's top marginal rate, 94% on all income over $200,000, was cut to 86.45%. The lowest rate was cut to 19% from 23%, and with a change in the amount of income exempt from taxation an estimated 12 million Americans were eliminated from the tax rolls entirely.

Corporate tax rates were trimmed and FDR's "excess profits" tax was repealed, which meant that top marginal corporate tax rates effectively went to 38% from 90% after 1945.”

Even though tax rates remained low early in the Post WWII years after the just referred to tax rate cuts, tax revenues continued to grow and outpaced government spending with the resulting effect being that of experiencing a slowing growth rate of the economy and triggering fears of economic stagnation. This was a concern of both Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy, culminating in Kennedy (JFK) convincing Congress to once again, lower the tax rates, eliminating the fear of economic stagnation.


George Bush II began his first term facing an extremely weak economy that had collapsed in the last year of the second term of President Clinton. President Bush convinced Congress that reduced tax rates were needed and as the so-called Bush tax rate cuts became effective, economic growth recovered from the sharp downturn at the end of 2000 which continued into 2001.
 

Historical data shows, that despite the financial crisis of 2008 and a temporary drop in tax revenues, tax revenues began to rise again and have continued to rise throughout the past three years under President Obama.







1-Fed Receipts have been on the rise since 2010 despite the Bush Tax Cuts and anemic economy.jpg



The enormous ballooning of the federal government’s budgetary deficit has been due to an explosion in government spending for the past four years that has far outstripped even rising tax revenues.  This precipitous climb in Federal Government spending, contrasts sharply with the disciplined control of such spending throughout most of the previous Post WWII period.  

It is to the dramatic rise in government expenditures and the effects of those increases to which we now turn.

We had mentioned in an earlier newsletter on this website, that the sharp increase over the last four years in federal government spending that has resulted in a dramatic increase in the federal budgetary deficit to the tune of nearly $1 trillion per year despite the fact that with the exception of beginning of the financial crisis, tax revenues have been rising steadily.  The Monthly Treasury Statements from the U.S. Treasury Department attest to this ongoing crisis. 

 




2-Four Years of Trillion Dollar Plus Deficits - wow.jpg

 







3-After the so-called Bush Tax Cuts were implemented revenues rose rapidly and deficits were shrinking.jpg




These extremely large federal deficits over the past four years has initiated increased fears of sovereign risk, that is to say, the fear of the Federal Government of the United States defaulting on the national debt.  This phenomenon of the materialization of sovereign risk by nations such as Greece is considered by some to be a foreshadowing of what may happen to the United States of America if expenditure discipline does not return to the Federal Government’s budgetary process. 

Of equal concern are two other problems.  One is what is being referred to as the economy falling off a “Fiscal Cliff”.  It would be a result of a combination of substantial tax rate increases proposed by President Obama and significant government spending cuts proposed by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.  Both the tax rate increases and the government expenditure reductions would reduce aggregate demand and most likely continue the economic malaise in which the U.S. economy is currently wallowing.  What happened to the teachings of John Maynard Keynes?

 

United States fiscal cliff

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_fiscal_cliff

 



Fiscal_Tightening_Infographic CBO August 2012.pdf


 






5-Transfer Payments are growing more rapidly than other expenditures.jpg







6-Transfer Payments are constitute nearly two-thirds of current expenditures at the Federal Level.jpg








7-Transfer Payments up enormously 2009-2010 but did not fall off much in 2011 - opting out early Social Security Unemployment benefits Welfare Disability.jpg



The second of the concerns in addition to growing fears of rising sovereign risk, is the nature of the tax rate increases.  Placing all of the tax rate increases on the so-called rich would undoubtedly reduce the national savings rate and investment in capital projects embodying the more risky technological changes.  The concern here is the precluding of a faster rate of economic growth and the tax base as well. 

The expenditures of government are of two types. The first category of expenditures has traditionally been called government purchases of goods and services.  In theory these are often called collective consumption and investment. Such things as defense spending, public education, highway construction, and flood control are examples of this collective consumption and investment. In the national income and product accounts presented quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the name given to these government purchases of goods and services or collective consumption and investment, is the term Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment.  All three of these expressions have the same meaning.

A second type of expenditure by government is referred to as transfer payments. These are receipts usually of households and usually from government but occasionally from business and other households.  There are also transfer payments to state and local governments from the federal government. The distinguishing characteristic that makes them transfer payments and not ‘earned’ income, is that they do not result from the current offering of a productive resource such as capital or labor in the transformation process of production of gods and services.  They may result from the delayed compensation to a productive resource in a previous, but not in the current period.  In the majority of cases, they were NEVER earned as a result of the supplying of a productive resource to the production process.





8-Increasing transfers from Federal Level to State Governments - Fed Expenditures growing at a much faster pace.jpg







9-Current Expenditures have grown by 46 percent from 2005 through 2011.jpg




The transfer payment, Social Security benefits are received after retirement and result from being taxed in qualified employment in previous periods, but not from current employment.  At  the risk of redundancy, we once again emphasize that the bulk of the transfer payments are to households and are not because they are supplying productive resources in the transformation process of production, but simply unearned additions to the household disposable income.

The transfer payments can be in cash or in kind. Examples of cash transfers are so security benefits and family income allowances. An example of an in-kind transfer payment would be Medicaid benefits.

The pattern of federal government expenditures is significantly different than those of the state and local governments also referred to as municipalities.  The large majority of federal government expenditures are transfer payments that are often nearly twice as large as are the federal government’s expenditures on goods and services or collective consumption and investment.  






10-The last time State and Local Spending exceeded Federal Spending.jpg






 

11-Federal - State and Local Spending.jpg


 
In normal years, the pattern is reversed for state and local governments, with collective consumption and investment (purchases goods and services) being the large majority of total municipal expenditures, the balance being in transfer payments. It should be pointed out, that many of the state government transfer payments such as Medicaid, are required of the state and local governments by federal government mandates even though there are only partially funded or in some cases completely unfunded by the federal government.

Another consideration is that of the two levels of government the federal level and governments below the federal level such as states, cities, counties, etc, the geographical tax base is significantly different.  It is much smaller for the state and local governments than it is for the federal government.  As a result, the bulk of state and local government (municipal government) debt is held externally or outside of the geographical area of the state or local government in question.  They have very limited taxing jurisdiction beyond their own borders. 

Since the federal government includes a somewhat larger geographical area than for state and local governments, a larger percentage of its outstanding debt is internally held within its geographical area than for the less geographically inclusive municipal levels of government.  That is why most municipal levels of government have some form of balanced budget provision in their constitutions and charters.  

At least since the Second World War, most of the outstanding debt of the federal government of the United States had been held by households, businesses, and federal agencies within the United States.  Since 1980, however, there has been a growing tendency for an increasing percentage of the federal debt being held externally by those outside of the United States such as for example, mainland China. 






12-In 1990 over half of the outstanding Federal US Debt was held domestically by private owners.jpg



 



13-In 2012 only a quarter of the outstanding Federal US Debt was held domestically by private owners.jpg


Now you can see why the fear of sovereign risk has been rising as the outstanding debt of the federal government of the U.S. as a percent of the nation’s GDP has been rising, primarily due to a lack of expenditure discipline over the past four years.  Not having had a federal budget legislated for three years has not helped.

 

'Unprecedented 1,200 Days' Since Senate Democrats Passed a Budget

(August 10, 2012) http://budget.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=306183 
 

If a government’s debt is internally held, then the debt service (payment of interest and paying off maturing debt if not refinanced) by the government simply transfers purchasing power from those taxed to those receiving interest on that debt or its repayment. If the debt service is on internally held debt, then both the taxpayer and the recipient of the debt service payments are within the geographical area of the government in question.
 

Externally held that is much more serious since then service by the government is undertaken by taxing people within the geographical area of that government and transferring the purchasing power to recipients of the debt service payments outside of that area.
 

Traditionally, that has meant that state and local government debt is a much more serious issue than for the federal government.  Unfortunately, the picture has been changing for the federal government as a significant percentage of the federal debt is now being held by those outside of the U.S.  
 

Much of this tendency is due to our persistently large trade deficits.  Those trade deficits in turn are often die to the pegging of exchange rates in a favorable manner for strengthening their own economies by causing a significant trade surplus for them with the U.S. which is the same as a trade deficit of the U.S.  This is clearly the case with mainland China.  Theory tells us that trade deficits depress an economy as its depressing imports exceed its stimulating exports.  In the terminology of Keynesian economics, exports raise aggregate demand while imports lower aggregate demand.  Thus trade deficits depress a nation‘s aggregate demand. 
 

This relative increase in the externally held portion of the outstanding federal debt of the U.S. Government is the major reason for the rise of the level of sovereign risk of the United States government.  As the ratio of outstanding debt of the U.S. Government to Gross Domestic Product rises, especially foreign held U.S. Government debt, the level of sovereign risk increases.

HAPPY NEW YEAR...2013!